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Central Economic Work Conference: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, reduce the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the growth of money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Explore and expand the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, innovate financial instruments, and maintain the stability of the financial market.Central Economic Work Conference: Strengthening Expectation Management and Promoting Policy Implementation and Expectation Guidance in Coordination. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to coordinate development and safety, do a good job in safety production, and effectively prevent and respond to social security incidents in a timely manner. Strengthen synergy, oppose departmentalism, and form a joint force for implementation. Strengthen the expected management, promote policy implementation and expected guidance in coordination, and enhance policy guidance and influence. At the same time, we should accurately grasp the situation of the world, the country, the party and the society, strengthen strategic planning, and formulate suggestions for the 10 th Five-Year Plan of the Central Committee. (Xinhua News Agency)Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.

The European Central Bank expects inflation to cool down faster. It is reported that the European Central Bank now expects inflation to cool down slightly faster than the forecast in September. It currently predicts that the average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, compared with the previous forecast of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. In the statement, the European Central Bank also said: "The anti-inflation process is on the right track."Spot gold fell by $5 in the short term and is now reported at $2,704 per ounce.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.

Lian Ping: The Central Economic Work Conference released a strong financial afterburner signal to lower the RRR or cut interest rates at the end of this year or early next year. Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and president of the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, said in an interview that the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that "a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented" and "lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates at the right time", which means that it is expected to intensify next year. Combined with the current domestic and international situation and liquidity situation, it is expected that the RRR cut and interest rate cut will land at the end of this year and early next year. Regarding "exploring and expanding the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank", Lian Ping believes that, on the one hand, the monetary policy should be reasonable and moderate, with a steady pace, so as to avoid a big deviation from market demand; On the other hand, monetary policy should explore and expand related fields and innovate constantly in maintaining financial stability. The functional connotation of the subsequent central bank is expected to be further enriched, and its coverage function may be extended to the whole financial field. "Next, whether it is the real estate market or the stock market, we need to build a long-term mechanism for financial stability." Lian Ping said. (SSE)European Central Bank President Lagarde: The inflation problem has not yet been completed. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the inflation problem has not yet been completed and the anti-inflation task has not yet ended, but inflation is moving towards the goal.Eurozone government bond yields barely changed, and eurozone government bond yields barely changed, after the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected. Michael Brown of Pepperstone said in a report: "The interest rate cut was accompanied by a policy statement, which' copied and pasted' the policy guidance issued after the October meeting." The ECB reiterated that it would "follow the method of data dependence and successive meetings to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance." According to Tradeweb's data, after the interest rate was determined, the yield of two-year German government bonds was 1.941%, slightly lower than the previous 1.951%, while the yield of 10-year German government bonds was 2.130%, which was almost unchanged that day.